Santa Clara County Prices Are Down, But Buyers Are Still Showing Up: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers Right Now

If you've been watching the headlines, you've probably seen the number: Santa Clara County's median home price is down 9% compared to last year, from $2,100,000 to $1,950,000. On paper, that sounds like a market in trouble.

It isn't.

835 single-family homes closed in Santa Clara County in June, right in line with recent years. Inventory sits at just 2.1 months, which is still a seller's market by any standard definition. What's changed isn't demand, it's pricing discipline, and understanding that difference is the key to making a smart move right now, whether you're listing your home or looking for your next one.

The Quick Answer

Santa Clara County's median home price is down 9% year-over-year, but closed sales have stayed steady and there's only 2.1 months of inventory on the market, a level that still favors sellers. That combination points to a pricing correction rather than a drop in buyer demand. San Mateo County is telling the opposite story: prices are up 7.5% year-over-year, sales are up nearly 19%, and homes are moving even faster, in about 22 days on average. Sellers who price accurately in either county are still seeing strong activity; buyers finally have a bit more room to negotiate in Santa Clara than they did a year ago.

What's Actually Happening in the Numbers

Two counties, two different stories, and both worth understanding if you're active in Silicon Valley real estate.

Santa Clara County: The median sale price fell from $2,100,000 to $1,950,000 year-over-year, a 9% drop. Yet 835 single-family homes closed in June, essentially in line with prior years. Active listings sit at 1,773 with 861 homes under contract, putting the absorption rate at 43% and inventory at just 2.1 months. Homes are taking a bit longer to sell than a year ago (27 days on average, up from 24), and the average sale-to-list ratio is holding near 101%. That's a market where buyers finally have some breathing room, not one where demand has disappeared.

San Mateo County: The median single-family price climbed to $2,150,000, up 7.5% year-over-year, with 434 closed sales, an 18.6% jump from last June. Active listings total 684 against 451 homes under contract, for a 66% absorption rate and just 1.5 months of inventory. Homes are moving in 22 days on average, down from 27 a year ago, and the sale-to-list ratio sits at 103.9%, meaning the typical home is still selling above asking.

The throughline: Both counties remain tight enough on inventory to favor sellers overall, but San Mateo is running hotter across nearly every metric while Santa Clara has cooled just enough to hand buyers some real negotiating leverage. Mortgage rates, which have hovered in the mid-6% range this year, are part of what's shaping that buyer caution in the more price-sensitive segments of the market.

What This Means If You're Selling

The single biggest lesson from the current data is that pricing strategy matters more than it has in several years.

• Price to today's market, not last year's. With 2.1 months of inventory in Santa Clara County and 1.5 months in San Mateo, well-priced homes are still selling at a healthy pace in both counties.

• Presentation still pays off. Santa Clara's average sale-to-list ratio near 101% shows buyers will still pay close to asking, but only for homes that are priced and presented right from day one.

• Don't panic, adjust. A softer year-over-year price trend in your county doesn't mean your home won't sell well. It means the strategy needs to be sharper than it was a year or two ago.

What This Means If You're Buying

For buyers, especially those who have been priced out or outbid over the past couple of years, this shift is meaningful.

• You have more negotiating room in Santa Clara County than you did last year. A 9% pullback in median price, combined with homes taking a few days longer to sell, means more sellers are open to conversations around price, credits, or terms.

• You still need to move quickly on the right home. With just 2.1 months of inventory, well-priced, well-located properties are still competitive. This is a market with more opportunity, not a slow market.

• Move-up buyers are in a uniquely strong position. If you're selling in a hotter segment like San Mateo County and buying in a cooler one like parts of Santa Clara County, you may be able to sell at a premium and buy with more leverage than you've had in years.

A Note for Move-Up Buyers

That last point is worth its own spotlight, because it's exactly the situation a lot of Silicon Valley homeowners find themselves in right now: enough equity to make a move, but real questions about financing, timing, and how to structure a sale-and-purchase without taking on unnecessary risk, especially with mortgage rates still sitting in the mid-6% range.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to sell in Santa Clara County? Yes, for sellers who price accurately. While the median sale price is down 9% year-over-year, closed sales volume has held steady at 835 homes in June, and inventory sits at just 2.1 months, a level that still favors sellers. The key is pricing to current market conditions rather than to last year's peak.

Why are Santa Clara County prices dropping while San Mateo County prices are rising? The two counties are experiencing different supply and demand balances. San Mateo has tighter inventory relative to demand (1.5 months versus Santa Clara's 2.1 months) and a higher absorption rate, pushing prices up 7.5% and days on market down to 22. Santa Clara has seen more price sensitivity from buyers, leading sellers to adjust pricing, which shows up as a 9% year-over-year decline even as sales volume stays consistent.

Is Silicon Valley a buyer's market or a seller's market right now? Overall, it still favors sellers in both counties, since inventory remains under 2.5 months in each. However, buyers in Santa Clara County have more negotiating leverage than they did a year ago, making it a more balanced environment than the peak years, while San Mateo remains more competitive.

What is a move-up buyer? A move-up buyer is a homeowner selling their current property to purchase a larger or higher-priced home. In today's market, move-up buyers can benefit from selling in stronger-performing areas like San Mateo County and buying in areas with softer pricing like parts of Santa Clara County.

Should I wait to sell my Santa Clara County home? That depends on your goals and timeline. Homes priced correctly for today's market are still selling in about 27 days on average. Waiting for prices to return to last year's levels is not a guaranteed strategy, since market conditions are shaped by inventory, mortgage rates, and buyer demand, all of which can shift in either direction.

Thinking through a move in today's market? Reach out to Christy Pak for a personalized read on your neighborhood and situation.